A country with one of the most over-complicated conflicts in recent history.
As unlike examples like the conflicts/wars at Ukraine, Armenia/Azerbaijan, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Yemen, and basically every single other conflict that is ongoing, this one is not truly as complicated when you dare to look at this in a simple way, and get rid of the complications.
To start off, let us stop thinking for a moment about every single other country, whether it is Russia, Iran, Turkey, USA, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and whatever else you could think of, remove it from your mind for a moment and bear with me.
Now let us start thinking of those active at Syria, which are the Assad government, the opposition/rebels, Army of Conquest, ISIL, the Kurds…
STOP! Like I said, we will keep it easy.
The Assad government and the opposition is everything we will need for now, the rest are less important than you might suppose to the solution regarding the conflict itself, they are important only afterwards.
The whole Syrian Civil War has started for one true reason, the fact the opposition wanted Bashar al-Assad removed as president of Syria, and he and his government didn’t agree.
Now 5 years later this remains the problem why this is still ongoing, and while Assad could have stepped down and called for new elections, he did not, this way keeping the civil war ongoing.
Important to note to this is that if he believed he had a majority of Syria supporting him, this should never have been a problem…
Which obviously equals in the believe that never the majority of those living at Syria supported Assad, not now, but also not when the whole situation started 5 years ago.
This already equals in answer one, which is the solution of the actual civil war, which is Assad being removed, forcefully by now, as it would be a true shocker if he would give up his powers himself by now, even though this would be the only way thinkable that would equal him being able to get away of this situation alive, as currently it is a wait until someone dares to step to the plate to end this all, which solution as horrid as it may sound, is the removal of Assad, death or alive…
But, hold on, not yet done here.
Now let’s open the doors to the other parties active at this situation, specifically the Kurds and ISIL, as they are both important for the same reason.
The goal of both the Kurds and ISIL is actually extremely similar, the Kurds want to create the region of Kurdistan, and ISIL want to make Iraq and The Levant one Islamic state, as those who use ISIL instead of ISIS should already be aware that the “L” stands for Levant.
Both of these “groups” are obviously highly dangerous, especially to international relations, with chances of me needing to explain anything about ISIL being extremely small, hence me skipping that one, as you could find that everywhere online, but let us focus on the Kurds for this one.
The region of Kurdistan overlaps with the area ISIL wants to claim, hence the fighting between these 2, yet… after that it gets difficult.
Problem behind this is that Kurdistan is not a set region, as while there are many Kurds alive, this has never been a true nation.
However, some make the link to the ancient “Corduene”, which causes some more problems, one being that it is a lot smaller than what the current Kurds claim the region to be theirs, yet, far more disturbingly, the region only being a part of current day Turkey when we compare the historical data with today’s world maps, and that when we compare it to that data, Iraq would be stolen from territory by the Kurds…
Still, we should take more importance at the diplomatic and political part at this, which states that Kurdistan will not exist any time soon, as what the current day Kurds attempt to claim include parts of Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Iran, and apparently unnoticed by Armenians, Armenia.
This is a classical example of something that could create a massive war, and if it is truly worth it for a region to be created, I will leave up to you…
To return to the situation at Syria, it would mean that as soon as Assad would be removed, everything should, and probably would, be done by the international community to keep not only ISIL away from ever taking any power at Syria, but also the Kurds.
And now we can take both Iran and Russia into the equation, as this is the point to start learning why I tend to keep my mouth shut to the more specific things at Syria.
As Iran and Russia have an obvious reason to support Assad, and by this not only opposing the opposition at Syria, but also ISIL, yet far and far more importantly, the Kurds.
Iran, Russia and Syria tend to be a a triangle alliance, which is why there shouldn’t be a lot of explaining needed, but Russia did previously oppose Assad.
Noteworthy is that at 2015, when Russia suddenly changed stances, we also saw an increase of Kurdish activity, not just at Syria itself, but everywhere, including at social media.
For the triangle of Syria, Russia and Iran, the Kurds recreating Kurdistan would mean area taken away from both Syria and Iran, obviously hurtful to both countries.
But hold on, you might say that Russia supports the Kurds, which is actually highly doubtful!
Just think about it, Russia obviously has power over Assad, especially now Assad could lose not only his power over Syria, but also his own life, yet, Russia couldn’t make a Kurdish federation happen, really..?
When we look at actual facts, this seems more like a stab towards Turkey, which are one of the enemies of the Kurds, quite obvious as the Kurdistan they want to claim includes a part of Turkey.
The importance of keeping the Kurds friendly is huge for the Russians, and that is not only the case when it comes to Syria, but also when it comes to Armenia.
And like any diplomat could tell you, offering something is better than offering nothing, and that is what Russia did; in figure of speech, they threw a bone with a rope attached to the Kurds, that way they would never lose their bone, while at the same time kept the Kurds happy…
The acts of Russia to the Kurds are not of any benefit to the Kurds, while it creating several benefits for Russia, which mostly are related to Armenia, so not important at this.
So, time to sum up what I have said until now:
Assad is only the problem at Syria, the solution to Syrian Civil War is getting him removed, probably forceful by now, and afterwards both ISIL and the Kurds will need to be kept away from ever gaining any control at Syria, otherwise this will only remain ongoing for many more years, because of the diplomatic tensions any change in area by either side would cause.
We are not done yet…
An importance that the whole world should realise is that all of the international community should keep away after that, only keeping the Kurds and ISIL away.
As that is what has gone wrong after the Iraq invasion by the USA, the fact that standards were forced onto Iraq that they basically didn’t agree with.
It is extremely important for the situation at the Middle East that all Syrians, including those who are currently refugees, get the ability to return to Syria when the problems are over, and have full decision themselves how to go on with their country, and if possible, also about what happens with Assad.
Eventually we are in a constant circle of problems at the Middle East because the rest of the world, and not as some say “The West”, but also countries at for example Asia, keep interfering.
The simple meaning of a democracy is that the power is in the hands of the people, not a third party, so, if Syrians want to return to a form of dictatorship, then according to the standards of democracy, that is the democratic way, as confusing as it may sound.
And that is it…
It is better to leave some parts of the horrid 5 years away, and look towards the solution, and when we look at what is possible, this is one of the extremely few possibilities that remain…